Technical Analysis – Myth or Magic?

Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: The following paper will outline the suitability of Technical Analysis (TA), regarding selective chosen tools for performance increase versus the classic Buy-and-Hold-Strategy (BHS). These two approaches, beside the Fundamental Analysis (FA), are the foundations used by investors concerning their Investment strategy and differ substantially in their nature. Thereby, this dissertation will investigate whether the application of active TA is a productive approach, yielding to favourable results and having the ability to outperform the passive BHS. To achieve substantive results, the comparisons of performances will be stretched to 21 years and are based on the following three indices, which differ significantly concerning their location, volume and importance. Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500). German Stock Exchange (DAX). Japanese Nikkei 225 (N225). However, to reinforce the impression of the analysis, semi-annual and annual performances will also be measured. This is an essential element of the comparisons, as due to the nature of TA, the seed capital of 1.000.000 Sterling will not be invested at all times. In this case, the capital will yield the current base rate of interest of the Bank of England minus 0.5 % per annum. The measurements will be assessed by means of three established Indicators and Oscillators. Indicators: Exponential Moving Averages; 200 days and 100 days. Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Bollinger Bands. Oscillators: Relative Strength Index. Slow Stochastic. Momentum. TA can be divided into Chartism and the statistical based TA. Although a clear demarcation between these groups is not given in reality, as most proponents of TA combine both techniques. The vast majority of this dissertation will only reflect the latter. This can also be justified, as Chartists predict future price developments based on trend lines, patterns and formations. Murphy (1999) states that all Chartists are Technical Analysts, but not all Technical Analysts are Chartists. Due to the lack of standardised price characteristics, Chartism implies a high degree of subjectivity. Therefore, the absence of operational ability of this sub-area would not lead to a feasible analysis concerning an increase in performance. We maintain that financial markets are either moving in boom or bust cycles (Bull or Bear Markets). The classic BHS, based on the Investment-Legend Benjamin Graham, has generated high profits in the [...]